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| Forum Index » Ai's Chat Room » How to make estimations about ai's sales. |
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So, what do u think ?
| Umm... Yeah, I agree with that idea ! |
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75%
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| I completely disagree !!! That sooooo random !!! |
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25%
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Total Votes : 4 |
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| LittleBigHeart |
 Posted: Jul 10, 2010 4:05 pm |
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CHU-LIP
Joined: 15 Jul 2008
Posts: 1687
Location: Osaka, JAPAN
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IT ONLY WORKS WITH HER RECENTS RELEASES
I discovered something recently. After a first week, a DVD or a single is divided by 6 in term of sale :
Let's take Zokkondition/Lucky*Star as exemple ->
11,980/6 = 1,996
Now, let's see official numbers
11,980 --> 1,962
OMG ! It's quite the same  lol
Let's see if it works for others releases
Love is Born 6th Anniversary : 7,879/6 = 1,313 (real numbers = 1,017)
LOVE is Best : 56,366/6 = 9,394 (real numbers = 14,018)
Love Letter Arena Tour 2009 : 11,561/6 = 1,926 (real numbers = 1,854)
Love Letter Live House 2009 : 11,083/6 = 1,846 (real numbers = 1,857)
Bye Bye : 17,485/6 = 2,914 (real numbers = 3,015)
Love is Born 5th Anniversary : 16,199/6 = 2,699 (real numbers = 1,938)
Kurage, Nagareboshi = 34,113/6 = 5,686 (real numbers = 5,683)
It's funny to see that it works with most of them. Why did i do that ? To see if ai-chin drops a lot between the first week, and the second one. If she does a number close to the one i found, it's ok, if it's a lot under, it's not good at all ! (look at love is born 5th, big drop !! Even Love letter tour 2009 did numbers close to LIB 5th with a first week less good).
AND if it's better (like love is best album), so it's a good second week  !
Do u see my point ^^ ?
PS : For most of them, singles/albums/DVDs before kurage, it doesn't work.
It was divided by a number more as 3, and 4, than as 6 now.
Now, we can see that the second week of sale drop more than before.
Umm... am I clear ? xD |
Last edited by LittleBigHeart on Jul 11, 2010 4:42 am; edited 2 times in total |
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| mello |
| Posted: Jul 10, 2010 5:33 pm |
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上塩タン焼680円
Joined: 06 Dec 2006
Posts: 310
Location: England
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I think its totally random but at the same time it makes absolute sense  |
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| chokokokoa |
| Posted: Jul 10, 2010 9:14 pm |
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恋愛写真
Joined: 11 Jun 2009
Posts: 1481
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Where is the option "I don't understand." on the poll?  |
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| mizuno121 |
| Posted: Jul 10, 2010 11:46 pm |
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Planetarium
Joined: 23 Jan 2009
Posts: 672
Location: Tabasco Mexico
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| Rodri |
| Posted: Jul 11, 2010 12:50 am |
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クラゲ, 流れ星
Joined: 14 Mar 2007
Posts: 13565
Location: Tokyo
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Hahahahaha
Yeah..I also was wondering for that option..
Could you explain it so we dumb lambs can understand, LittleBigHeart? 
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| LittleBigHeart |
| Posted: Jul 11, 2010 4:42 am |
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CHU-LIP
Joined: 15 Jul 2008
Posts: 1687
Location: Osaka, JAPAN
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lol.
To know how much ai-chin will sold in second week, u divide by 6.
If she sold 20,000 in first week, then :
20,000 / 6 = about 3,333
I just show that, usually, her recent releases were divided by 6 for the second week in term of sale.
Then, for her third week, u have to divide with 1,5. But it's another story ^^, and it's much more complicated.
SO, if I love XXX do more in second week, than expected (more than 3333 if she sold 20,000 in first week), IT MEANS, she did a good second week, better than her recent releases did  . |
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| azurejan |
| Posted: Jul 11, 2010 5:50 am |
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金魚花火
Joined: 03 Dec 2008
Posts: 162
Location: Hong Kong
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Eventually, I understood what you meant...
You may create a table with rows and column with percentage change, it could be easier to understand.
Do you mean the conclusion is "the actual sales in 2nd week" dropped heavily than that of DVD/CD in the past?
Your formula is trying to predict her recent sales situation, if drop to 1/6 is poor result, if drop only to 1/3 is better result?
I think this mathematical model better replaced by overall sales result.
And as illegal download is virtually inevitable, data so far cannot represent the population's acceptance to Ai-chin, the calculation of her reputation in pop music industry should be from the sales of tickets and number of concerts annually.
I have roughly calculated her overall number of concerts hold since 2004, over 200. By all means, Ai-chin is still one of the ultimate VIP of Avex !!!
Avex will do all their best to prevent any disaster over Ai-chin and for sure SU cannot escape from "blood spilled" even without SOS. |
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| LittleBigHeart |
| Posted: Jul 11, 2010 5:57 am |
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CHU-LIP
Joined: 15 Jul 2008
Posts: 1687
Location: Osaka, JAPAN
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azurejan wrote: Do you mean the conclusion is "the actual sales in 2nd week" dropped heavily than that of DVD/CD in the past?
Your formula is trying to predict her recent sales situation, if drop to 1/6 is poor result, if drop only to 1/3 is better result?
Yeah that's what i mean
In fact, it's only for fun, and i guess, we will play that "game" when I love xxx will be released
It may be fun to make our prediction according to her recent releases |
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| chokokokoa |
| Posted: Jul 11, 2010 7:22 am |
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恋愛写真
Joined: 11 Jun 2009
Posts: 1481
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Ah, I was close to a really understand when I'm asking for "I don't understand." option.
But why 6 now?
And how come numbers 3 and 4 to divide in the past?
How these numbers (3, 4, 6) comes?
azurejan wrote: Avex will do all their best to prevent any disaster over Ai-chin and for sure SU cannot escape from "blood spilled" even without SOS.
Good!   |
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| LittleBigHeart |
| Posted: Jul 11, 2010 8:40 am |
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CHU-LIP
Joined: 15 Jul 2008
Posts: 1687
Location: Osaka, JAPAN
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chokokokoa wrote: But why 6 now?
And how come numbers 3 and 4 to divide in the past?
How these numbers (3, 4, 6) comes?
Why 6 ? Well, it's simple, and there is a reason for that.
It means first week of sale, for the most of them, is bought by hardcore ai's fan .
So second week get a big drop (divided by 6).
When a new release does not drop that much, well... it will mean this single/DVD "works well".
I hope "I love xxx" won't divide its sales by 6, but by 4 or 5. |
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| LittleBigHeart |
| Posted: Jan 28, 2011 7:41 pm |
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CHU-LIP
Joined: 15 Jul 2008
Posts: 1687
Location: Osaka, JAPAN
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Umm...
I wanna see if my "estimate thing" works with I love XXX :
First week : 10322
Second week : 10322/6=1720
-> real numbers : 1823
Third week : 1823/2=911
-> real numbers : 896
Yes. It still works !
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