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How to make estimations about ai's sales.

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So, what do u think ?

Umm... Yeah, I agree with that idea !  
75%
 
I completely disagree !!! That sooooo random !!!  
25%
 

Total Votes : 4
LittleBigHeart
Posted: Jul 10, 2010 4:05 pm Reply with quote
CHU-LIP CHU-LIP
Joined: 15 Jul 2008 Posts: 1669 Location: Osaka, JAPAN
IT ONLY WORKS WITH HER RECENTS RELEASES

I discovered something recently. After a first week, a DVD or a single is divided by 6 in term of sale :

Let's take Zokkondition/Lucky*Star as exemple ->

11,980/6 = 1,996
Now, let's see official numbers
11,980 --> 1,962

OMG ! It's quite the same Nod lol
Let's see if it works for others releases

Love is Born 6th Anniversary : 7,879/6 = 1,313 (real numbers = 1,017)
LOVE is Best : 56,366/6 = 9,394 (real numbers = 14,018)
Love Letter Arena Tour 2009 : 11,561/6 = 1,926 (real numbers = 1,854)
Love Letter Live House 2009 : 11,083/6 = 1,846 (real numbers = 1,857)
Bye Bye : 17,485/6 = 2,914 (real numbers = 3,015)

Love is Born 5th Anniversary : 16,199/6 = 2,699 (real numbers = 1,938)
Kurage, Nagareboshi = 34,113/6 = 5,686 (real numbers = 5,683)

It's funny to see that it works with most of them. Why did i do that ? To see if ai-chin drops a lot between the first week, and the second one. If she does a number close to the one i found, it's ok, if it's a lot under, it's not good at all ! (look at love is born 5th, big drop !! Even Love letter tour 2009 did numbers close to LIB 5th with a first week less good).
AND if it's better (like love is best album), so it's a good second week Tongue !
Do u see my point ^^ ?

PS : For most of them, singles/albums/DVDs before kurage, it doesn't work.
It was divided by a number more as 3, and 4, than as 6 now.
Now, we can see that the second week of sale drop more than before.

Umm... am I clear ? xD


Last edited by LittleBigHeart on Jul 11, 2010 4:42 am; edited 2 times in total
 
mello
Posted: Jul 10, 2010 5:33 pm Reply with quote
上塩タン焼680円 上塩タン焼680円
Joined: 06 Dec 2006 Posts: 310 Location: England
I think its totally random but at the same time it makes absolute sense :I
 
chokokokoa
Posted: Jul 10, 2010 9:14 pm Reply with quote
恋愛写真 恋愛写真
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 Posts: 1481
Where is the option "I don't understand." on the poll? Laughing
 
mizuno121
Posted: Jul 10, 2010 11:46 pm Reply with quote
Planetarium Planetarium
Joined: 23 Jan 2009 Posts: 672 Location: Tabasco Mexico
chokokokoa wrote:
Where is the option "I don't understand." on the poll? Laughing

yeahhh the same here!!!

Laughing Laughing Laughing Sorry I started reading and Confused Confused Confused
 
Rodri
Posted: Jul 11, 2010 12:50 am Reply with quote
クラゲ, 流れ星 クラゲ, 流れ星
Joined: 14 Mar 2007 Posts: 13565 Location: Tokyo
Hahahahaha
Yeah..I also was wondering for that option..

Could you explain it so we dumb lambs can understand, LittleBigHeart? Meow

Giggle
 
LittleBigHeart
Posted: Jul 11, 2010 4:42 am Reply with quote
CHU-LIP CHU-LIP
Joined: 15 Jul 2008 Posts: 1669 Location: Osaka, JAPAN
lol.
To know how much ai-chin will sold in second week, u divide by 6.
If she sold 20,000 in first week, then :

20,000 / 6 = about 3,333

I just show that, usually, her recent releases were divided by 6 for the second week in term of sale.
Then, for her third week, u have to divide with 1,5. But it's another story ^^, and it's much more complicated.

SO, if I love XXX do more in second week, than expected (more than 3333 if she sold 20,000 in first week), IT MEANS, she did a good second week, better than her recent releases did Smile.
 
azurejan
Posted: Jul 11, 2010 5:50 am Reply with quote
金魚花火 金魚花火
Joined: 03 Dec 2008 Posts: 162 Location: Hong Kong
Eventually, I understood what you meant... Laughing
You may create a table with rows and column with percentage change, it could be easier to understand.

Do you mean the conclusion is "the actual sales in 2nd week" dropped heavily than that of DVD/CD in the past?
Your formula is trying to predict her recent sales situation, if drop to 1/6 is poor result, if drop only to 1/3 is better result?

I think this mathematical model better replaced by overall sales result.
And as illegal download is virtually inevitable, data so far cannot represent the population's acceptance to Ai-chin, the calculation of her reputation in pop music industry should be from the sales of tickets and number of concerts annually.

I have roughly calculated her overall number of concerts hold since 2004, over 200. By all means, Ai-chin is still one of the ultimate VIP of Avex !!!
Avex will do all their best to prevent any disaster over Ai-chin and for sure SU cannot escape from "blood spilled" even without SOS. Tongue
 
LittleBigHeart
Posted: Jul 11, 2010 5:57 am Reply with quote
CHU-LIP CHU-LIP
Joined: 15 Jul 2008 Posts: 1669 Location: Osaka, JAPAN
azurejan wrote:
Do you mean the conclusion is "the actual sales in 2nd week" dropped heavily than that of DVD/CD in the past?
Your formula is trying to predict her recent sales situation, if drop to 1/6 is poor result, if drop only to 1/3 is better result?


Yeah that's what i mean Smile
In fact, it's only for fun, and i guess, we will play that "game" when I love xxx will be released Smile
It may be fun to make our prediction according to her recent releases Smile
 
chokokokoa
Posted: Jul 11, 2010 7:22 am Reply with quote
恋愛写真 恋愛写真
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 Posts: 1481
Ah, I was close to a really understand when I'm asking for "I don't understand." option.


But why 6 now?
And how come numbers 3 and 4 to divide in the past?

How these numbers (3, 4, 6) comes?



azurejan wrote:
Avex will do all their best to prevent any disaster over Ai-chin and for sure SU cannot escape from "blood spilled" even without SOS. Tongue

Good! Grin Boogie
 
LittleBigHeart
Posted: Jul 11, 2010 8:40 am Reply with quote
CHU-LIP CHU-LIP
Joined: 15 Jul 2008 Posts: 1669 Location: Osaka, JAPAN
chokokokoa wrote:
But why 6 now?
And how come numbers 3 and 4 to divide in the past?

How these numbers (3, 4, 6) comes?


Why 6 ? Well, it's simple, and there is a reason for that.
It means first week of sale, for the most of them, is bought by hardcore ai's fan Smile.
So second week get a big drop (divided by 6).
When a new release does not drop that much, well... it will mean this single/DVD "works well".
I hope "I love xxx" won't divide its sales by 6, but by 4 or 5. Smile
 
LittleBigHeart
Posted: Jan 28, 2011 7:41 pm Reply with quote
CHU-LIP CHU-LIP
Joined: 15 Jul 2008 Posts: 1669 Location: Osaka, JAPAN
Umm...
I wanna see if my "estimate thing" works with I love XXX :
First week : 10322
Second week : 10322/6=1720
-> real numbers : 1823
Third week : 1823/2=911
-> real numbers : 896

Yes. It still works !
Sad
 
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